WASHINGTON, DC, 13 January 2006 – Over the last six months, outbreaks of bird flu have occurred in six countries outside East Asia.

After crossing into Russia from China, signs of avian flu were reported in Kazakhstan and moved southwest to Ukraine, Turkey, Romania and Croatia. In each of these countries, the outbreaks were initially contained but have had a tendency to come back – and come back with a vengeance, in Turkey’s case.

In Russia, diseased birds have popped up in different places: in the Ural Mountains but also in the outskirts of Moscow. In Ukraine, bird flu cases have defied easy solutions in the Crimean peninsula. And in Turkey, an initial outbreak in the west of the country in the Fall, was followed last week by a tragic reoccurrence in the east. The outbreak there has claimed so far the lives of three children and infected more than a dozen people.

“At this moment, it’s not clear to what extent this epidemic is under control in Europe and Central Asia,” said Juergen Voegele, World Bank sector manager for rural development in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, in an interview. “Our message to countries in the region is this: Be prepared. Don’t wait till you have an outbreak to think about drafting contingency plans and putting together a communications strategy.”

Various countries in Europe and Central Asia are already on a war footing, exchanging information with Turkey and busy working with international organizations to boost their capacity to repel or defeat a bird flu attack. In Turkey, an assessment conducted by the World Bank, UN agencies and the Turkish government set at $30 million the amount of money Turkey will need to deal with its outbreak of avian flu.

In the Kyrgyz Republic, where there have been no confirmed cases so far, authorities have also been working with the World Bank to prepare for an eventual outbreak. The country could be the first to draw resources from a $500-million global credit facility broadly endorsed by the World Bank’s board on January 12.

Although negotiations are still under way, the Kyrgyz Republic could receive about $5 million in aid to prevent avian flu. This money would serve to compensate farmers whose birds are culled; improve animal surveillance and care; prepare health services to respond to human cases of infection; draft a national communications strategy; and help health and agricultural ministries coordinate their work in times of crisis.

Turkey would benefit from a similar package of measures, financed partly by grants it hopes to elicit next week in Beijing. There are also ongoing discussions between the World Bank and Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova and Ukraine on this topic.

Beyond the headlines and the drama of human deaths, the virus has already had a strong impact on the region’s rural poor. “If we look at the importance of poultry as a percentage of GDP, it tends to be pretty small,” said Voegele. “But in terms of development and poverty, it’s extremely important. Thousands and thousands of families depend on the chickens they raise in their backyards for food and income.”

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